At the start, voters saw Donald Trump as better equipped than Joe Biden to handle the nation’s economy. However, the landscape shifted when Kamala Harris stepped in as the Democratic candidate for president.
For the first time since the campaign began, American voters are now more confident in Kamala Harris’s ability to manage the economy than in Trump’s. Although Biden had a solid economic record, many voters were reluctant to see him continue in office. Last summer, in key swing states, Trump had a significant lead in economic confidence, with 49% of voters favoring him over Biden’s 39%. This was despite the creation of 13.9 million jobs under Biden from 2021 to 2023. However, rising inflation and market pessimism have made it hard for Biden to use his economic achievements to win over undecided voters.
The legacy of "Bidenomics" now faces a challenge. Since Biden stepped aside and Harris took his place, the Democrats have regained their footing. A poll by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan shows 42% of respondents now trust Harris to guide the economy, slightly ahead of Trump’s 41%. Nonetheless, this margin is slim, and "Bidenomics," to which Harris was a key contributor, is not seen as a significant advantage. The anticipated "Biden Boom" fell short in the political realm, with 60% of respondents expressing a desire for Harris to chart a different course from Biden if elected.
The real test will be whether "Kamalanomics," unveiled last Friday, can carve out its own identity separate from Biden’s policies. Harris needs to advance the social initiatives that remain incomplete while addressing voters’ concerns about the high cost of living. For instance, the price of a dozen eggs skyrocketed from $0.89 (€0.81) in 2020 to $5.46 (€4.97) in 2022, highlighting the persistence of inflation—a factor that has doomed past presidential bids. The memory of Jimmy Carter’s 1980 loss to Ronald Reagan, after inflation soared to 14.5% during his term, looms large. As the 2024 election draws near, it’s clear that economic concerns will be a decisive factor for voters.
