Jake Sullivan has arrived in China for his first visit as the U.S. National Security Adviser, where he will engage in discussions with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. These talks aim to stabilize relations between the two nations.
This visit follows four prior meetings between Mr. Sullivan and Mr. Wang over the past 16 months, held in Vienna, Malta, Washington, and Bangkok. Their last meeting occurred shortly after a significant summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, which was intended to reset strained ties.
Scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, this week’s discussions underscore that China remains a priority for the Biden administration, even as the president enters his final months in office. Both Mr. Sullivan and Mr. Wang have recognized the importance of finding common ground amid ongoing disagreements between their countries.
There is speculation about whether another summit between Presidents Biden and Xi might be on the horizon. Although the White House has avoided directly linking Mr. Sullivan's visit to the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the timing is notable. If Mr. Sullivan can pave the way for a final Biden-Xi summit, it could resolve one of the most significant and challenging foreign policy relationships of Biden's presidency.
From Beijing's perspective, this moment is seen as a "critical juncture." Diplomatic talks between the U.S. and China are never straightforward, and with the unexpected shift in the U.S. election dynamics—Biden stepping aside for Kamala Harris—China is closely watching how the next administration might handle the relationship.
Donald Trump has already indicated plans to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially escalating the trade war he initiated in 2019. While Biden's administration pursued diplomacy, it didn't reverse the Trump-era tariffs and even added more, including steep duties on Chinese-made electric cars, solar panels, and steel.
Biden also bolstered alliances across Asia to counter China's growing influence and increased the U.S. military presence in the region, actions that have unsettled Beijing. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign has not provided much insight into how it plans to approach U.S.-China relations.
The White House has clarified that Mr. Sullivan's visit is intended to continue the work of the Biden administration rather than set the tone for the next presidency. However, China is likely thinking ahead and will use this opportunity to clarify its priorities. China’s foreign ministry has described this moment as a “critical juncture” between the world’s two largest economies.
For China, Taiwan remains a red line. Beijing claims the self-governing island and has consistently stated that it will not tolerate any actions that appear to support Taiwanese independence. High-profile diplomatic visits, such as the one by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022, or any recognition of Taiwan’s elections or leaders, fall into this category.
Chinese state media has indicated that Beijing will focus on expressing serious concerns, stating its position, and making firm demands regarding the "Taiwan question." Additionally, China is expected to deliver strong messages to Mr. Sullivan on trade, criticizing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods as “unreasonable” and urging Washington to stop politicizing economic and trade issues and to enhance people-to-people exchanges between the two nations.
From Washington’s perspective, the Biden administration initially aimed to manage its rivalry with China in a controlled manner, contrasting the perceived chaos of the Trump era. The goal was to showcase American power and competition with China through subtlety rather than overt confrontation.
However, this strategy has been challenged by a series of events. Last year, tensions escalated when a U.S. fighter jet shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon over American territory. Furthermore, the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have intensified the rhetoric between the two nations.
In April, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing with a stern warning: Washington would take action if China did not cease supplying Russia with microchips and machine parts used in its war in Ukraine. Blinken accused China of "helping to fuel the biggest threat" to European security since the Cold War.
